At the end of a year which defied expectations, forecasts for 2017 will have to come loaded with disclaimers. Nevertheless, our original 2016 forecasts also contained plenty to give us confidence. 

In this month's report we look at how steel and raw materials prices have remained strong in November as coking coal supply remains tight and steel inventories low. Beijing has tried to cool prices by cracking down on speculators but this had limited effect.

A key reason is that the …

Steel, iron ore and coking coal prices have strengthened markedly in the weeks after the National Day holiday, brushing off fears that demand will decline into the winter. A key source of strength has been a seasonal uptick in real estate, although key monthly indicators are still down year-on-year. Over …

Steel and iron ore prices have lost ground since the end of August despite expectations of better demand after the October holiday, the 'Golden October' for steel demand as traders here are fond of saying.