April US scrap trading is expected to settle this week, with almost all market participants finding notable price increases very likely amid ongoing pig iron shortages due to the Ukraine war.

“The prime grade scrap price increase may reach $200/gross ton; there’s no chance to replace it with pig iron,” says a US domestic scrap supplier.

Another scrap supplier tells Kallanish: “Obsolete grades are also expected to rise, by at least $60/gt; shredded by even more. There is also support from finished steel prices. Scrap will definitely follow.”

While the US market is preparing for higher prices, activity in export markets is subdued.

On the West Coast, US offers for containerised HMS 1&2 80:20 remain strong at $575-580/t cfr Taiwan levels. However, buying interest has not picked up.

On the East Coast, US suppliers were targeting higher levels of above $660/t cfr Turkey for HMS 1&2 80:20. However, they have failed to sell at these prices amid weak demand and competitive offers from the EU and Baltic.

Last week, a US-origin scrap booking was concluded at $652/t cfr Turkey for HMS 1&2 80:20, although the supplier initially offered this cargo at $667/t cfr. Although there were rumours of another sale at $654/t cfr on Friday, this is yet to be confirmed.

Turkish mills are seen exerting higher pressure on scrap prices, following the rises seen in Turkish electricity and natural gas rates from 1 April. However, most market participants expect Turkish mills to complete May-shipment scrap purchases at more or less stable prices.