Issue 38, 2023 - This week's editorial: Australia sees iron ore prices falling during the next two years

The Australian government foresees iron ore prices moderating further as global demand softens. 62% Fe iron ore fines spot prices in 2023 are seen averaging at $100/tonne, according to the industry ministry’s latest Resources and Energy quarterly report.

The benchmark iron ore price is projected to steadily fall to an average of about $76/t by 2025.

“There are substantial risks to the global demand outlook. A more pronounced global economic slowdown will exacerbate weak conditions in the steelmaking sector. Slowing growth in the Chinese economy has tilted the balance of risks towards the downside,” the report says.

It projects China, which accounts for almost 60% of global iron ore demand, to see a modest fall in total steel output over the outlook period to 2025.

On the supply side, it expects the world’s two largest producers – Australia and Brazil – to continue to collectively grow export volumes by 3.4% per annum over the outlook period to 2025.

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