Approaching November trading, the long-awaited rebound in exports is finally expected to provide support to domestic market prices in the coming month.

Until last week, the downtrend in export markets was undermining the expectations of those market participants who had a positive outlook for November trading. However, the recovery in demand in India as well as Turkey, the largest export market, and the rebound in export prices are now likely to support a sideways to upwards trend, depending on scrap grade.

A US supplier tells Kallanish: “We have a more positive outlook now following the hot rolled coil price hikes by mills and UAW’s tentative agreement with Ford. I expect prices to rise by $20-40/gross ton depending on the grade.”

Another supplier, pointing to weakened scrap inflow volumes, says: “Flow is not likely to improve amid the approaching winter and holiday season. This, coupled with improved fundamentals, will support prices during November trading.”

Although prices rebounded in Turkey last week, no recovery is seen in US-origin containerised HMS 1&2 80:20 scrap prices to Taiwan. On Monday, values decreased to $350/tonne cfr Taiwan, although this has not yet spurred demand.

On the East Coast, scrap prices rebounded in Turkey last week following the slight revival in demand. US-origin HMS 1&2 80:20, which decreased to $355/t cfr the previous week, rose to $356.75-358/t cfr Turkey last week. Suppliers are now seen targeting higher prices above $360/t cfr. However, the market doubts Turkish mills will pay these values as support from steel sales remains absent.