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Kallanish Steel Weekly: Billet levels remain firm despite Chinese demand reduction (Aug. 4, 2020)

Last week the global billet market continued to remain firm thanks to the positive pricing sentiment for CIS material. After having supported the market strongly, Chinese demand softened somewhat, but market observers still believe the short- and medium-term prospects are good; therefore levels have not suffered from the reduction in volumes ordered from China.

CIS billet export sales slowed down last week on lower availability and China's softer stance on imports, but the deals that took place commanded still-higher prices.

A Ukrainian scrap-fed mill sold the usual 10,000-tonne lot to a Middle Eastern trader at $385/tonne fob Mariupol, for early-September load readiness, according to several sources. The mill sells with small prepayment. The price, considered high by most sources, was pegged by the relatively short lead time. It is most certainly a long position, as there are no buyers in the market at the moment who would pay this price, they say.

Another sale, also for 10,000t at the same fob price, was concluded to Tunisia, but from a Russian mill, at $408/t cfr. Some traders believe there is demand for more material at this level, so the Ukrainian lot may not end up being held for long.

Some material is still available in small tonnages. A Russian coastal scrap-fed mill is still offering September-casting material at $385-390/t fob. Another Russian coastal mill is also offering at $385/t fob, and supplies mainly Turkey and Italy due to logistics.

Italian demand for billet is extremely slow at the moment, sources note, but Turkey is looking at billet imports again, as prices of imported and domestic scrap continue rocketing. Turkish billet is available at $400/t fob Turkey to traders, but lead times are long, they say.