Issue 08, 2025 - This week's editorial: Trade cases puncture China rebound, US pricing balloons

Just when it looked as if China’s market was finally rebounding last week after the Lunar New Year holiday, Chinese steel was slapped with anti-dumping duties in two jurisdictions, including major hot rolled coil export destination Vietnam. Turkish scrap trade hit a stalemate short of the $360/tonne mark, while a major Turkish steelmaker was heard to have snapped up the bankrupt Liberty Steel Dudelange plant in Luxembourg. The Liberty Steel Whyalla Steelworks was meanwhile forced into administration by the South Australian government and subsequently received a $1.5 billion government rescue package. In the US, excitement over tariffs led to reports of panic buying of HRC, with mills sold out and some expecting prices to reach $900/short ton.

The good news for China – and battered global steelmaking margins – is that China's construction steel market showed strong momentum last week, driven by signs of increasing demand as inventory growth slowed. Domestic rebar prices jumped $11/t on-week. Seasonal construction demand improvement and expectations of government support for infrastructure projects boosted sentiment. Economic stimulus expectations have returned in the run-up to next week’s "Two Sessions" meetings.

However, Vietnam announced it would levy 19.38-27.83% anti-dumping duties on China-origin HRC imports from March following a long-awaited investigation. Given Vietnam imported 8.4 million tonnes of the product from China last year, up 38% from 2023, one Chinese exporter was moved to exclaim: “This spells unemployment. For those traders who rely on Vietnam for their livelihood, the end has come.” 

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