Issue 18, 2024 - This week's editorial: Restocking wait goes on, China exports could repeat 2015

ArcelorMittal pointed in February to signs of an apparent demand improvement, as the long destocking phase came to an end. But it turns out the wait for a rebound will have to go on a little longer, as customers have adopted a cautious approach to buying, which is unsurprising given the subdued economic sentiment globally.

Sentiment does however appear to have reached a floor, and the low-inventory environment means that, when consumption does pick up, rapid restocking should follow, the benchmark steelmaking group says in its quarterly earnings report last week.

Excluding China, ArcelorMittal has maintained its global apparent steel demand growth forecast for 2024 at 3-4%, with US growth seen at 1.5-3.5%, Europe at 2-4%, Brazil at 0.5-2.5% and India at 6.5-8.5%.

From "unsustainably low" levels in Q4 2023, European steel spreads have somewhat normalised; US prices have been volatile – reflecting low inventory – but are showing signs of stabilisation recently, ArcelorMittal noted. China’s domestic margins remain unsustainably low – excess production is leading to high, and rising, steel exports, which “remain an unfair challenge to the global steel industry”, it adds.

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