Issue 15, 2024 - This week's editorial: Most major markets to see poor steel demand this year, mild recovery in 2025: Worldsteel

The crisis in global residential construction activity is expected to continue this year in most major markets with a recovery forecast for 2025, according to worldsteel's Short Range Outlook (SRO) steel demand forecast for 2024 and 2025. Global manufacturing activityshould start improving in 2024 although it remains affected by weak demand, high costs and tight financing. In contrast, the automotive industry which showed a strong recovery in 2023 should show weak growth in 2024.

While globally geopolitical and inflationary tensions persist, a faster end to inflation and further monetary policy easing could support steel demand, particularly from the construction sector. Worldsteel forecasts global steel demand will reach 1.79 billion tonnes in 2024, 1.7% more than in 2023, while next year global demand should grow by 1.2% to 1.81 billion tonnes.

The 27 countries of the European Union plus the United Kingdom will have to wait until 2025 for a proper steel demand recovery. The World Steel Association sees EU steel demand increasing only mildly this year in "a technical rebound" before a more significant 5.3% risein 2025. Europe is the region currently facing the biggest challenges, steel-consuming sectors remain impacted by an unstable geopolitical landscape as well as uncertainty driven by high inflation, monetary tightening and partial withdrawal of fiscal support, while energy and commodity prices remain high.

» Login to read the full report or sign up for a trial.