The World Steel Association has revised down its forecast for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) finished steel demand growth in 2016 to 3.1% on-year. This would give the region steel demand of 74.4 million tonnes.

In its previous short-range outlook issued last October worldsteel had forecast 5.2% steel demand growth for MENA to 77.2mt in 2016. (Watch the video interview)

Regional demand in 2015, meanwhile, has been confirmed at 72.1mt, down -0.6% on-year – this is far below October’s optimistic forecast of 4.6% growth in 2015 to 73.3mt.

The main reason for the lower-than-expected 2015 demand is the -1% decline to 53mt witnessed in the Middle East, which had previously been forecast to increase demand by 4%.

The region also plays a major role in the forecast revision for 2016. Middle Eastern steel demand this year is now seen growing 2.4% to 54.3mt, rather than the 4.3% growth anticipated previously.

Demand in Africa – including Sub-Saharan Africa – is expected to increase 3.8% in 2016 to 40.5mt. Previously it had been forecast to increase 6.2%.

In 2017 MENA demand is forecast to grow 4.9% to 78mt.

Besides the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council, worldsteel director general Edwin Basson has singled out Egypt, Algeria and the Maghreb as regional growth prospects.

“One of the key questions then is going to be the possible impact of Iran going forward,” Basson tells Kallanish in an exclusive interview. “For us Iran was at the moment a very neutral part of the forecast and we haven’t actually changed our view. We think it’s too early to become either very aggressive in terms of optimism or pessimism around the impact Iran might have on that region.” Nevertheless, Iran will play a “… definite” role going forward, he says.