US rebar pricing is flat week-on-week as market participants assess the strong US scrap market sentiment against an uncertain demand backdrop, Kallanish hears.

The spot price range for US domestic #4 rebar in 20-foot sticks is unchanged at $770-790/short ton.

Sentiment in the US scrap market remains positive approaching March trade, with most market participants expecting another $20-50/gross ton price rise depending on the grade and region. Current fundamentals are supportive, with higher capacity utilisation, rising steel values and a seasonal drop in scrap supply (see Kallanish 24 February).

Despite the optimistic scrap market tone, US tariff uncertainty and sluggish rebar demand prospects keep the market in a holding pattern.

“I can tell you that this is a very confusing market,” states a mid-Atlantic distributor. “The mills are not going to miss any orders. I can call SDI, Nucor, CMC and Gerdau, and I will get four different prices. And all of them will ask me for feedback and a second look.”

Pricing "is all over the place, but I do believe the new pricing that the mills are trying to get is $39-$41 at the mill,” the mid-Atlantic distributor states, quoting a price range in hundredweight that translates to $780-820/st.

There does appear to be consensus that another mill price hike will be attempted in March. Whether the higher levels will be accepted by the market is another question.

“We are predicting that the March increase will not stick,” adds the mid-Atlantic distributor. “We don’t expect to see an uptick in demand until the latter part of the year.”

And that is expected to keep rebar pricing rangebound.

“When all is said and done, I think the transaction pricing will be in the $37-39 range at the mill,” adds the mid-Atlantic distributor. That equates to $740-780/st. "I don’t see it going over $40 [$800/st] for very long. Just not enough business to support it.”

Uncertainty is also the rule in the southeastern US region.

“It seems like everyone is in a holding pattern awaiting more clarity,” states a southeastern fabricator. “People are sitting on their hands looking for consistent [market] action.”