Panelists at Kallanish Flat Steel 2024 in Istanbul expressed mostly a bearish outlook for the market until at least the second half of next year.

Tayfun İşeri, chairman of Turkey’s Flat Steel Product Exporters, Importers and Manufacturers Association (YİSAD), emphasised he is an optimist but is pessimistic about the market outlook for the first time.

The steel industry has been “hectic” for the past two years, he noted at last week’s event. Global trade has regionalised and the WTO has lost its respect. The Russia-Ukraine war, the Turkey earthquake and the Palestine-Israel conflict, as well as high interest rates and inflation have impacted steel demand and will continue to do so. Chinese exports, which will exceed 100 million tonnes before the end of 2024, pose a threat to steel prices and production in 2025, İşeri noted.

Selçuk Yılmaz, speaking at his first conference since becoming Yıldız Demir Çelik general manager last month, said Turkey’s imposition of a 6.1-43.31% dumping duty on HRC imports from India, China, Japan and Russia has already impacted domestic HRC pricing. Next year, there may be an anti dumping investigation into galvanizing, cold rolled and pre-painted steel imports in Turkey, he added. Operating profits are decreasing amid high energy costs, while production capacities are rising.

Kallanish Asia editor Tomas Gutierrez stated that Chinese steel demand will fall consistently in the foreseeable future, meaning China will need to export its surplus. Noting that overall fundamentals are weak and the recently announced stimulus packages are insufficient to support the steel industry, Gutierrez pointed out that economic confidence is required to trigger a demand recovery.

Stemcor managing director Dick Sands said construction has been hit by high interest rates, while global sentiment is very negative today. “The only thing that can move mountains is sentiment. We need positive sentiment,” he affirmed. Although wars are having a negative impact on steel demand at present, once they end, this will boost demand.

Trade cases are likely to increase on Chinese material, Sands continued, adding that he is no longer confident China can manage its economy.

GMK Center chief executive Stanislav Zinchenko stated that although he expected 1.4% annual growth next year, which would be good for the European economy, European steel demand is unlikely to improve in the next six months. The market is currently at the bottom of the demand cycle, with demand to return by 2026-2028.

The Indian market has been stagnant for almost a year. “We failed to see the expected infrastructure investment projects after the [Indian] election. The biggest challenge for India is exports which decreased by 50% in the nine months this year, while imports grew 60% ... India should decide about protection measures to compensate for export losses and stimulate its local market,” Zinchenko concluded.