Seaborne iron ore prices fell to a new low for 2024 on Thursday, reaching their lowest point since 16 November 2022.

The Kallanish KORE 62% Fe index and KORE 65% Fe index declined by $1.66/t and $1.97/t, respectively, to $91.46/dry metric tonne cfr Qingdao and $104/dmt cfr. The KORE 58% Fe index is $1.41/t lower at $78.83/dmt cfr.

On public platforms, 80,000 tonnes and 90,000t of Mac Fines were sold at $86/t and $84.1/t, respectively, with shipment in October, and 170,000t of PB Fines were booked at $91.5/t with the laycan of 5-14 October. In addition, 90,000t of Newman Fines were sold at $88.2/t for shipment in October.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), the most-traded January 2025 iron ore contract declined by CNY 12/t ($1.69/t) to CNY 684.5/t ($96.55/t). On the Singapore Exchange, October 62% Fe futures and 65% Fe futures settled $1.51/t and $1.81/t lower, respectively, at $91.02/t and $102.92/t. The same contract for 58% Fe futures lost $1.58/t to $78/t.

Scrap and billet prices both inched lower on Thursday. 6mm+ heavy scrap delivered to mills in the Yangtze River Delta declined by CNY 10/t to CNY 2,378/t. Tangshan billet declined by CNY 20/t to CNY 2,800/t.

The latest public data revealed on Thursday that demand for the five major steel products remained nearly unchanged from the previous week. This stagnation in demand, which failed to match market expectations for a recovery, has resulted in a dampened market outlook. An increase in steel supply has also further undermined market sentiment.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, most industry observers anticipate a volatile downward trend for iron ore prices. There may be a temporary boost in demand as buyers stock up ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in China. However, the overall outlook suggests an ample supply of iron ore combined with persistently weak demand could lead to declining prices. 

Analysts at Donghai Futures predict iron ore prices will likely fluctuate between $80-110/t. However, they caution that sustaining prices at the upper end of this range will be challenging.