Big European steel industry names have offered a glimmer of hope for the demand outlook in recent days, but tempered expectations for 2025, Kallanish notes. In any case, the industry’s health will depend heavily on anticipated European Commission measures.

ArcelorMittal said it expects higher apparent demand on-year in 2025 amid low inventory levels, especially in Europe. The group’s expectation of restocking throughout 2024 did not materialise, however. Chief executive Aditya Mittal also cautioned that EU measures to support industry will be critical this year. The European Commission is due to publish its Clean Industrial Deal later in February. A specific action plan for the steel industry is also eagerly being awaited.

European steelmakers’ association Eurofer said the Commission initiatives “will determine the future of the EU steel industry”.

ArcelorMittal’s European operations saw sales and Ebitda drop 5% and 18% respectively on-year in 2024 to $29.95 billion and $1.62 billion, despite a 4% rise in steel shipments to 28.66 million tonnes, driven by flat products.

Eurofer said EU apparent steel demand should recover 2.2% in 2025 but only provided the industrial outlook improves and global tensions ease. This is also down from its forecast in October of a 3.8% rebound this year. The firm steadily revised down its 2024 demand growth projection throughout last year.

Economic uncertainty will continue to take its toll in the coming quarters despite monetary easing by the European Central Bank, it added. Energy prices, weak manufacturing and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on activity.

US Steel, which owns the major flat steelworks in Kosice, said it expects slightly improved results in Europe in the first quarter, but pressure will remain from challenging pricing and demand conditions.

Tata Steel, which owns the IJmuiden and Port Talbot steelworks, pointed out that despite the European Central Bank reducing interest rates significantly, concerns persist about inflation and energy costs in Europe.