Indonesia’s infrastructure boom has disappointed in recent years as projects have been delayed and investment has fallen far short of targets. A pick up in real spending this year could see steel demand double from 2015 to 28 million tonnes, according to the Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association (IISIA).

Indonesian steel demand was up a solid 8.5% in 2015, after 2014 saw just 1.6% growth in 2014. Growth could explode in 2016 however, thanks to higher infrastructure spending, IISIA chairman Hidayat Triseputro has told the Jakarta Post.

There is reason to be optimistic for Indonesian steel demand this year. Government infrastructure spending targets have been hiked around 50% from 2015 to IDR 313 trillion ($24 billion). After delays, several major projects began in 2015 which are expected to boost steel consumption in 2016.

That level of investment seems unlikely to generate an extra 14mt of steel demand on its own however. If the equivalent amount of money was spent in China on railways, Kallanish would expect around 5mt of steel demand to be generated. There is no reason however to believe that Indonesian infrastructure is three times as steel intensive as China’s. Indonesia also has trouble realising promised spending. In the first seven months of 2015, one report calculated that Indonesia had spent just 11% of its infrastructure budget.

It seems likely that Indonesia will see growth in demand this year, but a doubling of demand to 28mt would be a very impressive achievement.