China’s steel exports slumped in October from the previous month, although they remained up year-on-year. In the short term, volumes could slide a little further, but the recent downturn in Chinese steel prices means overall volumes are likely to remain high, and could even rebound at the end of the year, Kallanish notes.

Export volumes were down 19.82% month-on-month and up just 5.5% year-on-year to 9.02 million tonnes in October. Year-to-date volumes are still up 24.7% on-year at 92.13mt, however.

Based on trader reports of the last couple of months, a decline in volumes was expected and the question was by how much. The new data means full-year 2015 volumes may fall below the 110mt predicted. With the sharp decline in Chinese steel prices, however, volumes could still rebound a little in December.

Over the longer term, China’s steel exports are now expected to remain high for several years. Although last month’s 11mt is likely unsustainable, and 9m t/month the top end of what could be sustained, exports of around 100m t/year are likely. With China’s steelmakers increasingly competitive, those that are able to survive their financial costs have every reason to keep fighting for global market share.

China’s steel imports in October, meanwhile, dropped by another -5.94% from September and -12.57% from the previous year to just 950,000t. Over January-October, imports were down -11.7% to 10.68mt.