Russia is forecast to produce roughly 69 million tonnes of crude steel this year, down from last year’s 71mt, in response to falling steel demand as the country’s economic woes deepen, according to industry representative Russian Steel.

At 40mt, domestic demand for finished steel products is estimated to shrink by 11.5% this year, from last year’s 45mt, the association says in a report seen by Kallanish. The mills are thus expected to increase exports and seek alternative markets for their steel, which will not be needed at home, rather than make corresponding production cuts. By contrast, Russian domestic demand only tailed off by 1.4%, or some 600,000t in 2014, versus 2013.

Russian Steel notes that carmaking will be hit hardest, citing data from Worldsteel association. Steel demand from Russia’s automotive industry could fall by 15% this year, compared to 2014. Plantmaking and engineering could demand 10.2% less and any fall over 10% is a critical risk, says Russian Steel. Construction, meanwhile could decline by 8%, in the same comparison.

This year the mills are expected to ship 27mt of finished products outside the country, up from 25mt last year. This compares to 23mt in 2013, when Russian exports were at their lowest since the 2009 crisis year, which saw exports climb to 30mt. Meanwhile, finished imports into Russia will slip to 4mt from 5mt last year, compared to 7m t/y for 2011-’13, and just 3mt in 2009.

Russia’s electric arc furnace-based producers should report the sharpest falls. EAF steelmaking is forecast to decline from last year’s 22mt peak to 20mt within the 69mt total. Open-hearth production should halve to 1mt this year. However, steelmaking via the basic oxygen route, which has been growing progressively from 38mt in 2009, should hold steady at last year’s 48mt.