China exported 7.8 million tonnes of finished steel in February, down a massive 24% from January’s record high, accoridng to China Customs data. However, February’s export slump on its own is no-where near enough to suggest 2015 will see exports decline from 2014, Kallanish notes.

February’s exports remain 62.5% more, year-on-year and suggest an annualised 101.68mt for 2015, which far exceeds the 93.8mt of exports seen in 2014. Furthermore, shipments were likely interrupted by the Chinese lunar New Year and so last month's fall would have been exaggerated.

Nevertheless, the decline from January’s stratospheric figure will be a relief to Southeast Asian steelmakers, in particular. They are keen to ramp up their own capacity to service growing domestic demand, but have historically struggled to compete with China’s exported surplus steel.

China is unlikely to see another massive increase in its steel exports this year. Removal of rebates on some products may have some effect, while a fall in scrap prices later this year would reduce the relative cost competitiveness of Chinese mills, compared to the mills in South East Asia. However, every month this year where annualised Chinese exports are over 100mt undermines the arguments of some analysts that export levels could pull back significantly from 2014, Kallanish notes.