Volkswagen Group and its many Chinese joint ventures are set to be the largest consumer of nickel by 2030, followed by Tesla, GM, Hyundai-KIA Group and Chinese automakers GAC, SAIC, and BYD, a study for the European Commission carried out by Roskill reveals.

Automakers are increasingly wary of the significant growth in battery metals demand in the next decade. Most Asian and western automakers have or are establishing new procurement teams with focus on battery metals. However, not every automaker has chosen the same electrification strategy, Kallanish notes.

While companies like Volkswagen seem to be targeting fully electric vehicles (BEV) from now until 2040, other companies like Toyota, Volvo or FCA are targeting hybrid powertrains. As a result, automotive groups targeting hybrid models by 2040 may be less exposed to the availability of battery metals, the study says.

Meanwhile, looking at future gigafactory demand the study forecasts that globally installed manufacturing capacity for large-sized (automotive/ESS) lithium-ion battery cells will surpass 2,000 gigawatt-hour (GWh) by 2030, around 4.5 times more than in 2019. This will reach 4,900 GWh by 2040, around 11 times more than in 2019, if it’s to meet the needs of demand. Most of these capacity expansions will be driven by transport electrification, Roskill states.

China is expected to maintain its dominant position in battery manufacturing due to its large domestic automotive market and pre-existing upstream battery supply chain. Assuming these facilities operate at 80% capacity by 2030, Asian battery plants are expected to require 960,000 tonnes of nickel metal alone, of which China will require around 770,000 t.

The Asian giant could potentially demand 1.2 million tonnes of nickel metal by 2040 should ultra-high nickel cathode technologies dominate the market. European Union countries are expected to demand around half of that at around 553,000 t by 2040, the report concludes.