The global electric vehicle (EV) market should see a quicker post-pandemic recovery in Europe and China rather than the US, Kallanish learns from McKinsey & Company.

The consulting firm believes the strong growth in Chinese EV demand and the positive momentum in the European EV market will outpace “stagnating” EV sales in the US. It points out that the North American country offers fewer incentives for purchasing or manufacturing an electric drive, with the exception of California and other couple of states.

Another factor that may impact EV growth in the US is the low price of oil and gasoline and lack of emission restrictions.

“The exact developments will largely depend on oil prices and monetary incentives for EV purchases, since the market is highly responsive to changes in those areas,” note the analysts.

“EV sales in the US had been slowing before the Covid-19 crisis, with annual growth decreasing from 80% in 2018 to 12% in 2019,” says McKinsey & Company. Market share growth is also “slowing significantly” in the country and is projected at around 3-6% in 2022, which is below pre-crisis expectations.

The analysts estimate European EV sales will reach 2-2.9 million units in 2022, with EV market share rising from 7% in 2020 to 12-15% next year. This is slightly higher than the pre-pandemic projection in the most likely scenario, they explain.

In China, the forecast is to have around 2.4-3.5 million EVs on the roads by 2022, accounting for a market share of 11-14%. Current market share stands at around 7%, the report states.

By 2030, electrification is projected to be at 37% in China, 33% in Europe and 17% in the US, based on McKinsey’s base scenario. Under a more aggressive scenario, EV market shares in the countries could reach 54%, 44% and 36% respectively.