Electric vehicles may hit price parity with fossil fuel vehicles within five years, according to attendees of Kallanish’s inaugural Power Materials webinar. 

In a poll during the conference, 42% of attendees said they expect falling battery prices to level out the cost of EVs and fossil-fuel vehicles within five years. About 32% of respondents expect parity to arrive on a 10-year timeline, while 16% expect it to be done within three years. 

A full 11% of respondents said they do not expect EVs to ever reach cost parity. 

The webinar featured Standard Lithium ceo Robert Mintak, First Cobalt ceo Trent Mell, and Wood Mackenzie director of nickel research Andrew Mitchell (see related story). 

Mell estimates parity will occur in 3-5 years, based on third-party estimates of the declining cost curve. 

Mintak points out that EVs are still somewhat of a luxury vehicle. As they gain prominence, some of the more exotic bells and whistles can be pared down to create more affordable vehicles. This will also likely occur differently in different regional markets, he says.
“Where we sit in the market today, it’s a luxury vehicle, almost all EVs,” he says. “As battery prices come down, you can address the final product based on consumer criteria.”

Mitchell believes the timeframe is likely to be closer to 10 years, though a host of factors could affect that beyond simple battery pricing. The development of more efficient battery chemistries, battery management systems, and the growth of a second-hand market will all make a difference, he says. 

“There’s no question they have been coming down, and they will continue to come down with economies of scale,” he says, adding that it’s not yet fully understood what the so-called end-of-life for a battery actually looks like. If it just means reduced charging speed or capacity, EVs could remain viable well past the expected timeframe. 

“I don’t think we really know yet,” he says. “We all say 8-10 years, but we really don’t know how long those batteries will last in terms of their charging life.”