The start of winter restrictions has sent steel prices higher, especially for rebar, and iron ore has followed in hot pursuit, as we describe in our markets section. Now however, attention is turning from winter to the coming year. Ahead of an end-year round-up and more detailed predictions in the December issue, we first lay the groundwork for understanding China’s steel markets in 2018.

Most notably, this is a good month to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. China’s steel demand, overshadowed by the drama of this year, is in fact continuing to develop broadly along lines seen since 2014. Understanding how those broader trends interplay with the sudden impacts of policy changes will be key to the coming year.

The question now is, will China maintain the fine balance between sufficient reform and maintaining stability?