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CSI: Volatility masks structural shifts (June 4, 2021)

Market volatility is easing slightly but has likely not gone very far. As the dust of the last month settles however, there are some structural changes which will influence global steel markets in the medium term. The changes are largely good news for overseas steelmakers, while Chinese steelmakers, especially the smaller private players, will bear the brunt of China’s shift in focus towards economic reforms.

China’s steel market became extremely volatile in May, as did global steel markets. Prices became detached from the fundamental supply-demand balance, while markets are also adjusting to the fact that China is no longer the key driver of the recovery. Fundamentals are coming back into play however, while Chinese policy remains deeply influential for global steel pricing.